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Ourense CF vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
12/15/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF44%
×Draw27%
Sestao River29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.40
Sestao River
1.09

Ourense CF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.34
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Ourense CF
1.13
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
71%
Ourense CF or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
56%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
21%
Sestao River wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
75%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
41%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
17%
Sestao River 1+ goals
66%
Sestao River 2+ goals
30%
Sestao River 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
60%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ourense CF scores more
44%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
29%

Ourense CF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 0–0 Sestao River

Ourense CF and Sestao River drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.