Ourense CF 1–3 Real Madrid II: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid II

K. Vazquez 90'

L. Zuniga 76' (pen)

V. Valdepenas 66'

C. Palacios 56'

10/19/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio de O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF41%

×Draw25%

Real Madrid II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.30

Ourense CF

1.46

Real Madrid II

1.30

Ourense CF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 51 away

1.34

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

66%

Ourense CF or Real Madrid II

75%

Draw or Real Madrid II

59%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

20%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

77%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

43%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

18%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

73%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

37%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

55%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ourense CF scores more

41%

level

25%

Real Madrid II scores more

34%

Ourense CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

14'

42'

45+8'

46'

56'

64'

66'

V. Valdepenas↳ D. Jimenez

68'

N. Castillo← O. Ouhdadi

68'

K. Vazquez← J. Ramos

70'

A. Raton

71'

F. Carmona

76'

L. ZunigaPenalty

79'

E. Coto← A. Guerrero

79'

L. Gueye← M. Prado

79'

B. Iglesias Lois← L. Zuniga

79'

C. Perea← M. Angel

83'

J. Fortea← J. Cestero Sancho

83'

G. Castrelo← C. Palacios

87'

90+4'

90+9'

90'

Ourense

Real

1

Fran

2

A

Jimenez

15

Martinez

3

⚽

Valdepena

5

Serrano

8

▼

Angel

14

▼

Sancho

28

▼

Martin

20

Fortuny

9

⚽

▼

Zuniga

10

⚽

▼

Palacios

1

Raton

12

Jelbat

5

▼

Prado

4

Carmona

3

Sanz

8

▼

Ramos

24

Moreno

16

▼

Munoz

21

▼

Guerrero

7

Bouzaig

17

▼

Ouhdadi

Manager: Daniel Llacer

46'▲M. Camus←▼D. Munoz

68'▲N. Castillo←▼O. Ouhdadi

68'▲K. Vazquez←▼J. Ramos

79'▲E. Coto←▼A. Guerrero

79'▲L. Gueye←▼M. Prado

Ourense CF substitutes

13Vivas2Coto14Perez6Castillo19Garcia20Gueye23Punzano15Piera9Vazquez11Aranzabe10Camus

Manager: Julian Lopez de Lerma

14'▲D. Yanez←▼R. Martin

79'▲B. Iglesias Lois←▼L. Zuniga

79'▲C. Perea←▼M. Angel

83'▲J. Fortea←▼J. Cestero Sancho

83'▲G. Castrelo←▼C. Palacios

Real Madrid II substitutes

13Sunico23Fati21Aguado17Fortea4Rivas33Castrelo11Lois6Perea7Yanez

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Real Madrid II

Real Madrid II beat Ourense CF 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 19, 2025.

Goals: C. Palacios (56'), V. Valdepenas (66'), L. Zuniga (76' pen), K. Vazquez (90').

The match was played at Estadio de O Couto in Ourense.

Ourense CF vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Real Madrid II