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Ourense CF vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pontellas
Pontellas
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ourense CF66%
×Draw21%
Pontellas13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.95
Pontellas
0.72

Ourense CF creates 171% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.87
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Ourense CF
0.83
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
87%
Ourense CF or Pontellas
79%
Draw or Pontellas
34%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
41%
Pontellas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
86%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
58%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
31%
Pontellas 1+ goals
51%
Pontellas 2+ goals
16%
Pontellas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
84%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.95

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ourense CF scores more
66%
level
21%
Pontellas scores more
13%

Ourense CF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 3–1 Pontellas

Ourense CF beat Pontellas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.