Ourense CF 2–1 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ponferradina

Álex Zalaya 53'

Javier Carbonell 11'

Ernesto Gómez 72'

11/30/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF37%

×Draw30%

Ponferradina34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.04

Ourense CF

1.10

Ponferradina

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.34

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Ponferradina

0.95

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Ponferradina

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

66%

Ourense CF or Ponferradina

70%

Draw or Ponferradina

63%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

15%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

67%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

30%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

10%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

65%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

28%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

52%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ourense CF scores more

37%

level

30%

Ponferradina scores more

34%

Ourense CF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Javier Carbonell

45+1'

Y. Cabanzon

53'

Álex Zalaya

54'

Borja Valle← Álvaro Bustos

64'

Ernesto Gómez← Álex Mula

64'

M. Doué← K. Sibille

67'

Fran Carmona← Moisés Rodríguez

67'

Jerin Ramos← Xesc Fullana

72'

Ernesto Gómez

76'

Alberto Gil← Josema Raigal

76'

G. Di Renzo← Javier Carbonell

83'

Miguel Prado← Fernando Andrada

84'

José Luis Cortés← Yeray Cabanzón

89'

A. Fidalgo

Ourense

Ponferradina

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▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carbonell

Manager: Pablo López

67'▲Fran Carmona←▼Moisés Rodríguez

67'▲Jerin Ramos←▼Xesc Fullana

76'▲Alberto Gil←▼Josema Raigal

76'▲G. Di Renzo←▼Javier Carbonell

83'▲Miguel Prado←▼Fernando Andrada

Ourense CF substitutes

CarmonaRamosGilRenzoPradoOlmoGuillénPrada

Manager: Javi Rey

54'▲Borja Valle←▼Álvaro Bustos

64'▲Ernesto Gómez←▼Álex Mula

64'▲M. Doué←▼K. Sibille

84'▲José Luis Cortés←▼Yeray Cabanzón

Ponferradina substitutes

ValleGómezDouéCortésLópezJiménezFernándezAbelendaLanchoJorrínBarredo