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Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
9/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ourense CF55%
×Draw23%
Gimnástica Segoviana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.80
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.06

Ourense CF creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.34
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00

allows per match

Ourense CF
1.13
Gimnástica Segoviana
2.26

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
78%
Ourense CF or Gimnástica Segoviana
77%
Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana
45%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
31%
Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
83%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
54%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
27%
Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
65%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
29%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
71%
Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.80

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ourense CF scores more
55%
level
23%
Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
22%

Ourense CF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Segoviana

Ourense CF and Gimnástica Segoviana drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.