Ourense CF 1–0 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Javier Carbonell 9'

5/3/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF41%

×Draw27%

Cultural Leonesa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Ourense CF

1.33

Cultural Leonesa

1.15

Ourense CF creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 88 away

1.34

creates per match

1.16

1.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

68%

Ourense CF or Cultural Leonesa

73%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

59%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

19%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

74%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

38%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

15%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

68%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

32%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

56%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ourense CF scores more

41%

level

27%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

32%

Ourense CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

25'

53'

58'

62'

62'

66'

Alberto Gil← Ángel Sánchez

66'

G. Di Renzo← Javier Carbonell

69'

G. Di Renzo

71'

Carlos Calderón← A. Pastoriza

74'

Xesc Fullana← Jerin Ramos

79'

Álex Blesa← Jairo Noriega

79'

Juanma Bravo← Josema Raigal

82'

Txus Alba← Sergi Maestre

88'

Xesc Fullana

89'

T. Alba

90'

A. Gil

Ourense

Cultural

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carbonell

Manager: Pablo López

66'▲Alberto Gil←▼Ángel Sánchez

66'▲G. Di Renzo←▼Javier Carbonell

74'▲Xesc Fullana←▼Jerin Ramos

79'▲Álex Blesa←▼Jairo Noriega

79'▲Juanma Bravo←▼Josema Raigal

Ourense CF substitutes

GilRenzoFullanaBlesaBravoGilAndradaRodríguezGuillénTeijoPrada

Manager: Raúl Llona

62'▲Antón Escobar←▼Barri

62'▲Bicho←▼Kevin Presa

71'▲Carlos Calderón←▼A. Pastoriza

82'▲Txus Alba←▼Sergi Maestre

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

EscobarBichoCalderónAlbaRuizAmigoSatrústeguiArtolaLanchiSuárezSamanesGarcía