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Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
5/10/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio de O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF39%
×Draw27%
Celta de Vigo II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.31
Celta de Vigo II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 120 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.34
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Ourense CF
1.13
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
65%
Ourense CF or Celta de Vigo II
73%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
61%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
17%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
73%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
38%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
14%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
71%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
35%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
53%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ourense CF scores more
39%
level
27%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
35%

Ourense CF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Ourense CF 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio de O Couto in Ourense.