Ourense CF 1–3 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Barakaldo

Miguel Prado 47'

Maroan Sannadi 38'

Pablo Santiago 12'

Adrián Revilla 4'

9/29/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF41%

×Draw28%

Barakaldo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Ourense CF

1.29

Barakaldo

1.10

Ourense CF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.34

creates per match

1.08

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Barakaldo

1.08

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Barakaldo

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

68%

Ourense CF or Barakaldo

72%

Draw or Barakaldo

59%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

18%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

72%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

37%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

14%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

67%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

30%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

56%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ourense CF scores more

41%

level

28%

Barakaldo scores more

32%

Ourense CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

4'

12'

20'

38'

45+3'

Hugo Sanz← Raúl Prada

46'

Ángel Sánchez← Josema Raigal

46'

Miguel Prado← Jairo Noriega

46'

Moisés Rodríguez← Fran Carmona

46'

A. Jelbat← Borja García

47'

Miguel Prado

66'

Jesús← Julen Huidobro

66'

Kepa Uriarte← Adrián Revilla

67'

Álex Gil← Fernando Andrada

74'

Beñat de Jesús← Unai Buján

75'

E. Molina

90'

Aimar Vicandi← Pablo Santiago

Ourense

Barakaldo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Revilla

⚽

Sannadi

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Rubén Domínguez

45+3'▲Hugo Sanz←▼Raúl Prada

46'▲Ángel Sánchez←▼Josema Raigal

46'▲Miguel Prado←▼Jairo Noriega

46'▲Moisés Rodríguez←▼Fran Carmona

67'▲Álex Gil←▼Fernando Andrada

Ourense CF substitutes

SanzSánchezPradoRodríguezGilOlmoCarbonellGuillénFullana

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

46'▲A. Jelbat←▼Borja García

66'▲Jesús←▼Julen Huidobro

66'▲Kepa Uriarte←▼Adrián Revilla

74'▲Beñat de Jesús←▼Unai Buján

90'▲Aimar Vicandi←▼Pablo Santiago

Barakaldo substitutes

JelbatJesúsUriarteJesúsVicandiTenaNaveiraMuguruzaAriztiaIsuskizaLópezTxoperena

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Barakaldo

Barakaldo beat Ourense CF 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 29, 2024.

Goals: Adrián Revilla (4'), Pablo Santiago (12'), Maroan Sannadi (38'), Miguel Prado (47').

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.

Ourense CF vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Barakaldo