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OuJK vs Roi United — Suomen Cup 2018

OuJK
OuJK
FT
0 – 5
Roi United
Roi United
3/27/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

OuJK22%
×Draw18%
Roi United60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OuJK
1.63
Roi United
2.75

Roi United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

OuJK
1.00
Roi United
3.50

allows per match

OuJK
2.00
Roi United
2.25

finishing

OuJK+0.00on par
Roi United+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OuJK ↓

Roi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

OuJK or draw
40%
OuJK or Roi United
82%
Draw or Roi United
78%

Winning margin

OuJK wins by 2+
10%
Roi United wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

OuJK 1+ goals
80%
OuJK 2+ goals
48%
OuJK 3+ goals
22%
Roi United 1+ goals
93%
Roi United 2+ goals
75%
Roi United 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

OuJK (draw refunded)
26%
Roi United (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OuJK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Roi United away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OuJK attack 1.00 + Roi United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Roi United attack 3.50 + OuJK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

OuJK scores more
22%
level
18%
Roi United scores more
60%

Roi United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Roi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OuJK vs Roi United

Roi United beat OuJK 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.