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OuJK vs KePS — Suomen Cup 2018

OuJK
OuJK
FT
1 – 0
KePS
KePS
2/27/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

OuJK29%
×Draw24%
KePS47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OuJK
1.29
KePS
1.71

KePS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

OuJK
1.00
KePS
1.43

allows per match

OuJK
2.00
KePS
1.57

finishing

OuJK+0.00on par
KePS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OuJK ↓

KePS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OuJK or draw
53%
OuJK or KePS
76%
Draw or KePS
71%

Winning margin

OuJK wins by 2+
12%
KePS wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

OuJK 1+ goals
72%
OuJK 2+ goals
37%
OuJK 3+ goals
14%
KePS 1+ goals
82%
KePS 2+ goals
51%
KePS 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

OuJK (draw refunded)
38%
KePS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OuJK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

KePS away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OuJK attack 1.00 + KePS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

KePS attack 1.43 + OuJK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OuJK scores more
29%
level
24%
KePS scores more
47%

KePS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KePS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OuJK vs KePS

OuJK beat KePS 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.