Oughtibridge WM 2–3 Sheffield W: Result & Stats

Oughtibridge WM

2 – 3

Sheffield W

10/13/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingOughtibridge War Memorial Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oughtibridge WM39%

×Draw19%

Sheffield W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oughtibridge WMExpected goals in this matchSheffield W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.56

Oughtibridge WM

2.44

Sheffield W

2.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

0.80

4.33

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

Oughtibridge WM

0.67

Sheffield W

0.80

allows per match

Oughtibridge WM

4.33

Sheffield W

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oughtibridge WM+0.00on par

Sheffield W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oughtibridge WM ↓

Sheffield W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Oughtibridge WM or draw

57%

Oughtibridge WM or Sheffield W

81%

Draw or Sheffield W

61%

Winning margin

Oughtibridge WM wins by 2+

22%

Sheffield W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Oughtibridge WM 1+ goals

91%

Oughtibridge WM 2+ goals

70%

Oughtibridge WM 3+ goals

43%

Sheffield W 1+ goals

92%

Sheffield W 2+ goals

72%

Sheffield W 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Oughtibridge WM (draw refunded)

48%

Sheffield W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oughtibridge WM at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Sheffield W away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oughtibridge WM attack 0.67 + Sheffield W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Sheffield W attack 0.80 + Oughtibridge WM defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oughtibridge WM scores more

39%

level

19%

Sheffield W scores more

43%

Sheffield W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheffield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff