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Oughtibridge WM vs Boldmere St. Michaels W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Oughtibridge WM
Oughtibridge WM
FT
0 – 4
Boldmere St. Michaels W
Boldmere St. Michaels W
10/22/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingOughtibridge War Memorial Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oughtibridge WM16%
×Draw15%
Boldmere St. Michaels W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oughtibridge WM
1.48
Boldmere St. Michaels W
3.10

Boldmere St. Michaels W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Oughtibridge WM
0.67
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.86

allows per match

Oughtibridge WM
4.33
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.29

finishing

Oughtibridge WM+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oughtibridge WM ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Oughtibridge WM or draw
31%
Oughtibridge WM or Boldmere St. Michaels W
85%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W
84%

Winning margin

Oughtibridge WM wins by 2+
7%
Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Oughtibridge WM 1+ goals
77%
Oughtibridge WM 2+ goals
43%
Oughtibridge WM 3+ goals
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals
95%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals
81%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Oughtibridge WM (draw refunded)
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oughtibridge WM at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oughtibridge WM attack 0.67 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Oughtibridge WM defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Oughtibridge WM scores more
16%
level
15%
Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more
69%

Boldmere St. Michaels W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Boldmere St. Michaels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Oughtibridge WM 0–4 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Boldmere St. Michaels W beat Oughtibridge WM 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Oughtibridge War Memorial Sports Ground in Oughtibridge.