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Oued Ellil vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
3 – 0
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
2/13/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oued Ellil45%
×Draw32%
Stade Gabesien23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.10
Stade Gabesien
0.70

Oued Ellil creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
77%
Oued Ellil or Stade Gabesien
68%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
55%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
19%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
67%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
30%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
10%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
50%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
16%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
66%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
45%
level
32%
Stade Gabesien scores more
23%

Oued Ellil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Oued Ellil 3–0 Stade Gabesien

Oued Ellil beat Stade Gabesien 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.