Oued Ellil 1–0 Sporting Ben Arous: Result & Stats

Oued Ellil

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

3/10/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oued Ellil50%

×Draw31%

Sporting Ben Arous19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oued EllilExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.60

Oued Ellil

1.18

Sporting Ben Arous

0.60

Oued Ellil creates 97% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

1.09

creates per match

0.54

0.67

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Oued Ellil

1.09

Sporting Ben Arous

0.54

allows per match

Oued Ellil

0.67

Sporting Ben Arous

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw

81%

Oued Ellil or Sporting Ben Arous

69%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

50%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

22%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

69%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

33%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

45%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

12%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

73%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oued Ellil scores more

50%

level

31%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

19%

Oued Ellil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff