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Oued Ellil vs Menzel Nour — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
4 – 0
Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
1/30/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oued Ellil61%
×Draw25%
Menzel Nour13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.54
Menzel Nour
0.56

Oued Ellil creates 175% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Menzel Nour
0.45

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Menzel Nour
2.00

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Menzel Nour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
87%
Oued Ellil or Menzel Nour
75%
Draw or Menzel Nour
39%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
33%
Menzel Nour wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
79%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
45%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
20%
Menzel Nour 1+ goals
43%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
11%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
82%
Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
61%
level
25%
Menzel Nour scores more
13%

Oued Ellil at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Oued Ellil 4–0 Menzel Nour

Oued Ellil beat Menzel Nour 4-0 in Ligue 2 on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.