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Oued Ellil vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
11/16/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oued Ellil62%
×Draw27%
Menzel Bourguiba12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.45
Menzel Bourguiba
0.47

Oued Ellil creates 209% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
88%
Oued Ellil or Menzel Bourguiba
73%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
38%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
32%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
77%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
42%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
18%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
37%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
8%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
84%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
62%
level
27%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
12%

Oued Ellil at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Oued Ellil 2–0 Menzel Bourguiba

Oued Ellil beat Menzel Bourguiba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.