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Oued Ellil vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
6/14/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oued Ellil34%
×Draw32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
0.94
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
67%
Oued Ellil or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
68%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
66%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
12%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
61%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
24%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
7%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
60%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
23%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
51%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
34%
level
32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
33%

Oued Ellil at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oued Ellil vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Oued Ellil beat Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-0 in Ligue 2 on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.