Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oued Ellil vs CO Medenine — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CO Medenine
CO Medenine
K. Gontassi 88' (pen)
12/10/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oued Ellil50%
×Draw30%
CO Medenine20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.24
CO Medenine
0.67

Oued Ellil creates 85% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
CO Medenine
0.67

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
CO Medenine
1.39

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
CO Medenine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

CO Medenine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
80%
Oued Ellil or CO Medenine
70%
Draw or CO Medenine
50%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
23%
CO Medenine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
71%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
35%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
13%
CO Medenine 1+ goals
49%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
15%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
71%
CO Medenine (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

CO Medenine away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + CO Medenine defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.24

CO Medenine attack 0.67 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
50%
level
30%
CO Medenine scores more
20%

Oued Ellil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
K. GontassiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Oued Ellil 1–0 CO Medenine

Oued Ellil beat CO Medenine 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 10, 2022.

Goals: K. Gontassi (88' pen).

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.