Oued Ellil 3–0 Bembla: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Oued Ellil

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bembla

3/5/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal de Bir Mcherga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Oued Ellil62%

×Draw24%

Bembla14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oued EllilExpected goals in this matchBembla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.61

Oued Ellil

1.61

Bembla

0.61

Oued Ellil creates 164% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

1.09

creates per match

0.56

0.67

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Oued Ellil

1.09

Bembla

0.56

allows per match

Oued Ellil

0.67

Bembla

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Bembla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Bembla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw

86%

Oued Ellil or Bembla

76%

Draw or Bembla

38%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

34%

Bembla wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

80%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

48%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

22%

Bembla 1+ goals

46%

Bembla 2+ goals

13%

Bembla 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

82%

Bembla (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Bembla away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Bembla defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bembla attack 0.56 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oued Ellil scores more

62%

level

24%

Bembla scores more

14%

Oued Ellil at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff