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Oued Ellil vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ariana
Ariana
11/25/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Oued Ellil52%
×Draw27%
Ariana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.40
Ariana
0.78

Oued Ellil creates 79% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Ariana
1.71

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
79%
Oued Ellil or Ariana
73%
Draw or Ariana
48%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
25%
Ariana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
75%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
41%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
17%
Ariana 1+ goals
54%
Ariana 2+ goals
18%
Ariana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
71%
Ariana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ariana attack 0.89 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
52%
level
27%
Ariana scores more
21%

Oued Ellil at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oued Ellil vs Ariana

Oued Ellil beat Ariana 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.