Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 3–1 Thes Sport

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Thes Sport

M. Parmentier 77', 25'

H. Eugène 11'

D. Karremans 86'

12/1/2024

League #487 · VV - 14Bergéstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II37%

×Draw23%

Thes Sport40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven IIExpected goals in this matchThes Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.72

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

1.63

Thes Sport

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.71

creates per match

1.73

1.71

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

1.71

Thes Sport

1.73

allows per match

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

1.71

Thes Sport

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II+0.00on par

Thes Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II ↓

Thes Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II or draw

60%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II or Thes Sport

77%

Draw or Thes Sport

63%

Winning margin

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II wins by 2+

18%

Thes Sport wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1+ goals

80%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 2+ goals

48%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 3+ goals

22%

Thes Sport 1+ goals

82%

Thes Sport 2+ goals

51%

Thes Sport 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (draw refunded)

48%

Thes Sport (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Thes Sport away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II attack 1.71 + Thes Sport defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Thes Sport attack 1.73 + Oud-Heverlee Leuven II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II scores more

37%

level

23%

Thes Sport scores more

40%

Thes Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thes Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

H. Eugène

25'

M. Parmentier

46'

Y. Reuten← S. Mukandila

65'

D. Karremans← T. Swinnen

75'

H. Bulut← H. Eugène

75'

E. Honnof← S. Hassouan

77'

M. Parmentier

80'

A. Mele← R. Jacquemyn

80'

M. Vermijl← M. Naqqadi

86'

M. Gérard← F. Idumbo

86'

D. Karremans

90'

M. Aouameur← M. Heremans

Oud-Heverlee

Thes

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Eugène

75'▲H. Bulut←▼H. Eugène

75'▲E. Honnof←▼S. Hassouan

86'▲M. Gérard←▼F. Idumbo

90'▲M. Aouameur←▼M. Heremans

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II substitutes

BulutHonnofGérardAouameur

Manager: J. Lauryssen

46'▲Y. Reuten←▼S. Mukandila

65'▲D. Karremans←▼T. Swinnen

80'▲A. Mele←▼R. Jacquemyn

80'▲M. Vermijl←▼M. Naqqadi

Thes Sport substitutes

ReutenKarremansMeleVermijl

League #487: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 3–1 Thes Sport

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II beat Thes Sport 3-1 in League #487 on December 1, 2024.

Goals: H. Eugène (11'), M. Parmentier (25', 77'), D. Karremans (86').

The match was played at Bergéstadion in Tirlemont.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Thes Sport — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #487: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 3–1 Thes Sport