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Ouakam vs La Linguère — Ligue 1 2019

Ouakam
Ouakam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Linguère
La Linguère
12/7/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade de Ngor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ouakam44%
×Draw33%
La Linguère23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ouakam
1.05
La Linguère
0.68

Ouakam creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ouakam
1.19
La Linguère
0.58

allows per match

Ouakam
0.77
La Linguère
0.91

finishing

Ouakam+0.00on par
La Linguère+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ouakam ↓

La Linguère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ouakam or draw
77%
Ouakam or La Linguère
67%
Draw or La Linguère
56%

Winning margin

Ouakam wins by 2+
18%
La Linguère wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ouakam 1+ goals
65%
Ouakam 2+ goals
28%
Ouakam 3+ goals
9%
La Linguère 1+ goals
49%
La Linguère 2+ goals
15%
La Linguère 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ouakam (draw refunded)
65%
La Linguère (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ouakam at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

La Linguère away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ouakam attack 1.19 + La Linguère defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

La Linguère attack 0.58 + Ouakam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ouakam scores more
44%
level
33%
La Linguère scores more
23%

Ouakam at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ouakam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ouakam 0 – 0 La Linguère

Ouakam and La Linguère drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Ngor in Dakar.