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Ouakam vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

Ouakam
Ouakam
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
11/18/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ouakam46%
×Draw30%
Jamono Fatick24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ouakam
1.20
Jamono Fatick
0.78

Ouakam creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ouakam
1.19
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

Ouakam
0.77
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

Ouakam+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ouakam ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ouakam or draw
76%
Ouakam or Jamono Fatick
70%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
54%

Winning margin

Ouakam wins by 2+
20%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ouakam 1+ goals
70%
Ouakam 2+ goals
34%
Ouakam 3+ goals
12%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
54%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
18%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ouakam (draw refunded)
66%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ouakam at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ouakam attack 1.19 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Ouakam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ouakam scores more
46%
level
30%
Jamono Fatick scores more
24%

Ouakam at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ouakam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Ouakam 3–1 Jamono Fatick

Ouakam beat Jamono Fatick 3-1 in Ligue 1 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.