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Ottawa Rapid W vs Montreal Roses W — Northern Super League 2026

Ottawa Rapid W
Ottawa Rapid W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montreal Roses W
Montreal Roses W
9/7/2025Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League · Round 6TD Place Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ottawa Rapid W42%
×Draw26%
Montreal Roses W32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Rapid W
1.45
Montreal Roses W
1.23

Ottawa Rapid W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ottawa Rapid W
1.84
Montreal Roses W
1.47

allows per match

Ottawa Rapid W
1.00
Montreal Roses W
1.05

finishing

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par
Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Rapid W ↓

Montreal Roses W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ottawa Rapid W or draw
68%
Ottawa Rapid W or Montreal Roses W
74%
Draw or Montreal Roses W
58%

Winning margin

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+
20%
Montreal Roses W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals
77%
Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals
42%
Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals
18%
Montreal Roses W 1+ goals
71%
Montreal Roses W 2+ goals
35%
Montreal Roses W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)
57%
Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Rapid W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Montreal Roses W away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.84 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Montreal Roses W attack 1.47 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ottawa Rapid W scores more
42%
level
26%
Montreal Roses W scores more
32%

Ottawa Rapid W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Super League: Ottawa Rapid W 0–0 Montreal Roses W

Ottawa Rapid W and Montreal Roses W drew 0-0 in Northern Super League on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa, Ontario.