Ottawa Fury 2–1 Penn: Result & Stats

Ottawa Fury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Penn

7/14/2018

USL Championship · Round 31TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ottawa Fury44%

×Draw28%

Penn28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ottawa FuryExpected goals in this matchPenn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Ottawa Fury

1.31

Penn

1.00

Ottawa Fury creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

1.12

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ottawa Fury

1.26

Penn

1.12

allows per match

Ottawa Fury

0.88

Penn

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Penn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

Penn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw

72%

Ottawa Fury or Penn

72%

Draw or Penn

56%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+

20%

Penn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals

73%

Ottawa Fury 2+ goals

38%

Ottawa Fury 3+ goals

14%

Penn 1+ goals

63%

Penn 2+ goals

26%

Penn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)

61%

Penn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Penn away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + Penn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Penn attack 1.12 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more

44%

level

28%

Penn scores more

28%

Ottawa Fury at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff