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Ottawa Fury vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
7/21/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ottawa Fury36%
×Draw29%
Nashville35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.10
Nashville
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
65%
Ottawa Fury or Nashville
71%
Draw or Nashville
64%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
14%
Nashville wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
67%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
30%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
10%
Nashville 1+ goals
66%
Nashville 2+ goals
29%
Nashville 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
51%
Nashville (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nashville attack 1.29 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
36%
level
29%
Nashville scores more
35%

Ottawa Fury at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Fury vs Nashville

Ottawa Fury beat Nashville 2-0 in USL Championship on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).