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ÖTSU Hallein vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
FT
1 – 2
Zell am See
Zell am See
11/9/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Union-Platz Hallein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein45%
×Draw22%
Zell am See34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÖTSU Hallein
1.96
Zell am See
1.68

ÖTSU Hallein creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein
2.54
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein
1.73
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw
66%
ÖTSU Hallein or Zell am See
78%
Draw or Zell am See
55%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
25%
Zell am See wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
86%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
58%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
31%
Zell am See 1+ goals
81%
Zell am See 2+ goals
50%
Zell am See 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
57%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zell am See attack 1.63 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more
45%
level
22%
Zell am See scores more
34%

ÖTSU Hallein at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: ÖTSU Hallein 1–2 Zell am See

Zell am See beat ÖTSU Hallein 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Union-Platz Hallein in Oberalm.