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ÖTSU Hallein vs Hallwang — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
FT
1 – 4
Hallwang
Hallwang
9/18/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 6Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein61%
×Draw18%
Hallwang21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÖTSU Hallein
2.58
Hallwang
1.46

ÖTSU Hallein creates 77% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein
2.54
Hallwang
1.18

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein
1.73
Hallwang
2.63

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par
Hallwang+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Hallwang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw
79%
ÖTSU Hallein or Hallwang
82%
Draw or Hallwang
39%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
40%
Hallwang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
92%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
72%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
47%
Hallwang 1+ goals
77%
Hallwang 2+ goals
43%
Hallwang 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
75%
Hallwang (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Hallwang away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Hallwang defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.58

Hallwang attack 1.18 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more
61%
level
18%
Hallwang scores more
21%

ÖTSU Hallein at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: ÖTSU Hallein 1–4 Hallwang

Hallwang beat ÖTSU Hallein 4-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage in Hallein.