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ÖTSU Hallein vs Eugendorf — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
FT
1 – 2
Eugendorf
Eugendorf
10/3/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 8Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein42%
×Draw21%
Eugendorf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÖTSU Hallein
1.98
Eugendorf
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein
2.54
Eugendorf
1.98

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein
1.73
Eugendorf
1.42

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par
Eugendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Eugendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw
63%
ÖTSU Hallein or Eugendorf
79%
Draw or Eugendorf
58%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
23%
Eugendorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
86%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
59%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
31%
Eugendorf 1+ goals
84%
Eugendorf 2+ goals
55%
Eugendorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
53%
Eugendorf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Eugendorf away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Eugendorf defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Eugendorf attack 1.98 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more
42%
level
21%
Eugendorf scores more
37%

ÖTSU Hallein at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ÖTSU Hallein vs Eugendorf

Eugendorf beat ÖTSU Hallein 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Thomas Stangassinger Sportanlage in Hallein.