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Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2019

Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
11/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Stadion Olympic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Otrant-Olympic52%
×Draw24%
Mladost Lješkopolje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otrant-Olympic
1.71
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.07

Otrant-Olympic creates 60% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic
1.84
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.20

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic
0.94
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.57

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw
76%
Otrant-Olympic or Mladost Lješkopolje
76%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
48%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
28%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
82%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
51%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
24%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
69%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.94 · 69 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.84 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Otrant-Olympic defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more
52%
level
24%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
24%

Otrant-Olympic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Otrant-Olympic 7–1 Mladost Lješkopolje

Otrant-Olympic beat Mladost Lješkopolje 7-1 in Second League on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Olympic in Ulcinj.