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Otrant-Olympic vs Lovćen — Second League 2019

Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
4/26/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Otrant-Olympic50%
×Draw25%
Lovćen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otrant-Olympic
1.60
Lovćen
1.04

Otrant-Olympic creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic
1.84
Lovćen
1.15

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic
0.94
Lovćen
1.36

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw
75%
Otrant-Olympic or Lovćen
75%
Draw or Lovćen
50%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
26%
Lovćen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
80%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
47%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
22%
Lovćen 1+ goals
65%
Lovćen 2+ goals
28%
Lovćen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
67%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.94 · 69 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.84 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Otrant-Olympic defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more
50%
level
25%
Lovćen scores more
25%

Otrant-Olympic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otrant-Olympic vs Lovćen

Otrant-Olympic beat Lovćen 2-1 in Second League on April 26, 2026.