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Otrant-Olympic vs Drezga — Second League 2019

Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Drezga
Drezga
6/24/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Olympic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otrant-Olympic60%
×Draw22%
Drezga17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otrant-Olympic
1.86
Drezga
0.88

Otrant-Olympic creates 111% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic
1.84
Drezga
0.82

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic
0.94
Drezga
1.88

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par
Drezga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Drezga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw
83%
Otrant-Olympic or Drezga
78%
Draw or Drezga
40%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
35%
Drezga wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
84%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
55%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
28%
Drezga 1+ goals
59%
Drezga 2+ goals
22%
Drezga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
78%
Drezga (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.94 · 69 matches

Drezga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.84 + Drezga defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Drezga attack 0.82 + Otrant-Olympic defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more
60%
level
22%
Drezga scores more
17%

Otrant-Olympic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otrant-Olympic vs Drezga

Otrant-Olympic beat Drezga 2-0 in Second League on June 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Olympic in Ulcinj.