Otrant-Olympic 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica

Otrant-Olympic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

5/10/2025

First League · Round 33Stadion Olympic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Otrant-Olympic30%

×Draw25%

Buducnost Podgorica45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Otrant-OlympicExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.58

Otrant-Olympic

1.26

Buducnost Podgorica

1.58

Buducnost Podgorica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 123 away

1.47

creates per match

1.75

1.42

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic

1.47

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic

1.42

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw

55%

Otrant-Olympic or Buducnost Podgorica

75%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

70%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+

13%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals

72%

Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals

36%

Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals

13%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

79%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

47%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)

41%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.47 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Otrant-Olympic defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more

30%

level

25%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

45%

Buducnost Podgorica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff