Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Otrant-Olympic vs Bokelj — First League 2019

Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bokelj
Bokelj
9/28/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Otrant-Olympic39%
×Draw28%
Bokelj33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otrant-Olympic
1.26
Bokelj
1.13

Otrant-Olympic creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Bokelj
0.84

allows per match

Otrant-Olympic
1.42
Bokelj
1.05

finishing

Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par
Bokelj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otrant-Olympic ↓

Bokelj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Otrant-Olympic or draw
67%
Otrant-Olympic or Bokelj
72%
Draw or Bokelj
61%

Winning margin

Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
17%
Bokelj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
72%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
36%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
13%
Bokelj 1+ goals
68%
Bokelj 2+ goals
31%
Bokelj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
54%
Bokelj (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otrant-Olympic at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Bokelj away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.47 + Bokelj defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bokelj attack 0.84 + Otrant-Olympic defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Otrant-Olympic scores more
39%
level
28%
Bokelj scores more
33%

Otrant-Olympic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Otrant-Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Otrant-Olympic 1–2 Bokelj

Bokelj beat Otrant-Olympic 2-1 in First League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš in Petrovac na Moru.