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OTP vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OTP
OTP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
RoPS II
RoPS II
7/18/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

OTP37%
×Draw22%
RoPS II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OTP
1.69
RoPS II
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

creates per match

OTP
1.71
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

OTP
1.81
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

OTP+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OTP ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

OTP or draw
60%
OTP or RoPS II
78%
Draw or RoPS II
63%

Winning margin

OTP wins by 2+
19%
RoPS II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

OTP 1+ goals
82%
OTP 2+ goals
50%
OTP 3+ goals
24%
RoPS II 1+ goals
83%
RoPS II 2+ goals
53%
RoPS II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

OTP (draw refunded)
48%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OTP at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OTP attack 1.71 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

RoPS II attack 1.73 + OTP defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OTP scores more
37%
level
22%
RoPS II scores more
40%

RoPS II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OTP 4 – 0 RoPS II

OTP beat RoPS II 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.