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OTP vs GBK — Suomen Cup 2018

OTP
OTP
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
GBK
GBK
4/29/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundHeinäpään tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

OTP8%
×Draw11%
GBK81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OTP
1.25
GBK
3.83

GBK creates 206% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

OTP
1.00
GBK
3.00

allows per match

OTP
4.67
GBK
1.50

finishing

OTP+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OTP ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

OTP or draw
19%
OTP or GBK
89%
Draw or GBK
92%

Winning margin

OTP wins by 2+
3%
GBK wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

OTP 1+ goals
71%
OTP 2+ goals
36%
OTP 3+ goals
13%
GBK 1+ goals
98%
GBK 2+ goals
88%
GBK 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

OTP (draw refunded)
9%
GBK (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OTP at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

GBK away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OTP attack 1.00 + GBK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

GBK attack 3.00 + OTP defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

OTP scores more
8%
level
11%
GBK scores more
81%

GBK at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: OTP 2–3 GBK

GBK beat OTP 3-2 in Suomen Cup on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Heinäpään tekonurmi in Oulu.