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OTP vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

OTP
OTP
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

OTP10%
×Draw12%
FF Jaro77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OTP
1.27
FF Jaro
3.51

FF Jaro creates 176% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

OTP
1.00
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

OTP
4.67
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

OTP+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OTP ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

OTP or draw
23%
OTP or FF Jaro
88%
Draw or FF Jaro
90%

Winning margin

OTP wins by 2+
4%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

OTP 1+ goals
72%
OTP 2+ goals
36%
OTP 3+ goals
14%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
97%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
86%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

OTP (draw refunded)
12%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OTP at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OTP attack 1.00 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + OTP defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

OTP scores more
10%
level
12%
FF Jaro scores more
77%

FF Jaro at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OTP 0 – 3 FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat OTP 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.