Otok 1–1 Urania Baška Voda: Result & Stats

Otok

FT

1 – 1

Urania Baška Voda

4/24/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 25Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok57%

×Draw21%

Urania Baška Voda23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OtokExpected goals in this matchUrania Baška Voda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.29

Otok

2.15

Urania Baška Voda

1.29

Otok creates 67% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 57 away

2.18

creates per match

0.81

1.76

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Otok

2.18

Urania Baška Voda

0.81

allows per match

Otok

1.76

Urania Baška Voda

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Otok+0.00on par

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Urania Baška Voda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Otok or draw

77%

Otok or Urania Baška Voda

79%

Draw or Urania Baška Voda

43%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+

35%

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals

88%

Otok 2+ goals

63%

Otok 3+ goals

36%

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

72%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

37%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)

72%

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.15

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Otok scores more

57%

level

21%

Urania Baška Voda scores more

23%

Otok at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff