Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Otok vs Primorac Biograd — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
1 – 1
Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
8/29/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok51%
×Draw22%
Primorac Biograd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
1.98
Primorac Biograd
1.40

Otok creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
Primorac Biograd
1.03

allows per match

Otok
1.76
Primorac Biograd
1.78

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Primorac Biograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Otok or draw
73%
Otok or Primorac Biograd
78%
Draw or Primorac Biograd
49%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
29%
Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
86%
Otok 2+ goals
59%
Otok 3+ goals
31%
Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
75%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
41%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
65%
Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.98

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Otok scores more
51%
level
22%
Primorac Biograd scores more
27%

Otok at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Otok 1–1 Primorac Biograd

Otok and Primorac Biograd drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.