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Otok vs Neretvanac Opuzen — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
2 – 1
Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
11/20/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 16Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok53%
×Draw21%
Neretvanac Opuzen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
2.11
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.43

Otok creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.09

allows per match

Otok
1.76
Neretvanac Opuzen
2.04

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Otok or draw
74%
Otok or Neretvanac Opuzen
79%
Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen
47%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
31%
Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
88%
Otok 2+ goals
62%
Otok 3+ goals
35%
Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
76%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
42%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
67%
Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.11

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Otok scores more
53%
level
21%
Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
26%

Otok at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otok vs Neretvanac Opuzen

Otok beat Neretvanac Opuzen 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.