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Otok vs Jadran LP — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
2 – 1
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
11/7/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 14Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok45%
×Draw24%
Jadran LP31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
1.68
Jadran LP
1.34

Otok creates 25% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
Jadran LP
0.93

allows per match

Otok
1.76
Jadran LP
1.17

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Otok or draw
69%
Otok or Jadran LP
76%
Draw or Jadran LP
55%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
24%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
81%
Otok 2+ goals
50%
Otok 3+ goals
24%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
74%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
39%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
60%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Jadran LP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Jadran LP attack 0.93 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Otok scores more
45%
level
24%
Jadran LP scores more
31%

Otok at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Otok 2–1 Jadran LP

Otok beat Jadran LP 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.