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Otôho d'Oyo vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

Otôho d'Oyo
Otôho d'Oyo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
12/23/2023League #844League #844 · Round 7Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Otôho d'Oyo70%
×Draw19%
Nouvelle Génération11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otôho d'Oyo
2.03
Nouvelle Génération
0.64

Otôho d'Oyo creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Otôho d'Oyo
2.50
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

Otôho d'Oyo
0.50
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

Otôho d'Oyo+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otôho d'Oyo ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Otôho d'Oyo or draw
89%
Otôho d'Oyo or Nouvelle Génération
81%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
30%

Winning margin

Otôho d'Oyo wins by 2+
44%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Otôho d'Oyo 1+ goals
87%
Otôho d'Oyo 2+ goals
60%
Otôho d'Oyo 3+ goals
33%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
47%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
14%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Otôho d'Oyo (draw refunded)
87%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otôho d'Oyo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otôho d'Oyo attack 2.50 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + Otôho d'Oyo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Otôho d'Oyo scores more
70%
level
19%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
11%

Otôho d'Oyo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Otôho d'Oyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: Otôho d'Oyo 4–1 Nouvelle Génération

Otôho d'Oyo beat Nouvelle Génération 4-1 in League #844 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.