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Othellos vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Othellos
Othellos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
12/1/20231. Division1. Division · Round 13Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Othellos24%
×Draw25%
Omonia Nicosia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
1.02
Omonia Nicosia
1.58

Omonia Nicosia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 118 away

creates per match

Othellos
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

Othellos
1.60
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
50%
Othellos or Omonia Nicosia
75%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
76%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
9%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
64%
Othellos 2+ goals
27%
Othellos 3+ goals
8%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
79%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
47%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
33%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 0.95 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Othellos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Othellos scores more
24%
level
25%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
50%

Omonia Nicosia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Othellos vs Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Othellos 2-1 in 1. Division on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.