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Othellos vs Ethnikos Achna — 1. Division 2019

Othellos
Othellos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ethnikos Achna
Ethnikos Achna
12/21/20231. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Othellos38%
×Draw25%
Ethnikos Achna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
1.44
Ethnikos Achna
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 101 away

creates per match

Othellos
0.95
Ethnikos Achna
1.22

allows per match

Othellos
1.60
Ethnikos Achna
1.94

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Ethnikos Achna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
63%
Othellos or Ethnikos Achna
75%
Draw or Ethnikos Achna
62%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
18%
Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
76%
Othellos 2+ goals
42%
Othellos 3+ goals
18%
Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals
76%
Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals
41%
Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
51%
Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 0.95 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Othellos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Othellos scores more
38%
level
25%
Ethnikos Achna scores more
37%

Othellos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Othellos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Othellos 2–1 Ethnikos Achna

Othellos beat Ethnikos Achna 2-1 in 1. Division on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.