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Othellos vs Doxa — Cup 2019

Othellos
Othellos
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
10/5/2022CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Othellos35%
×Draw20%
Doxa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
2.00
Doxa
2.27

Doxa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Othellos
2.00
Doxa
1.88

allows per match

Othellos
2.67
Doxa
2.00

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
55%
Othellos or Doxa
80%
Draw or Doxa
65%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
19%
Doxa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
86%
Othellos 2+ goals
59%
Othellos 3+ goals
32%
Doxa 1+ goals
90%
Doxa 2+ goals
66%
Doxa 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
44%
Doxa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Doxa away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 2.00 + Doxa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Doxa attack 1.88 + Othellos defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Othellos scores more
35%
level
20%
Doxa scores more
45%

Doxa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Doxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Othellos vs Doxa

Othellos and Doxa drew 1-1 in Cup on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos in Larnaca.