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Othellos vs Aris — 1. Division 2019

Othellos
Othellos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aris
Aris
10/30/20231. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Othellos25%
×Draw25%
Aris50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
1.02
Aris
1.56

Aris creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 88 away

creates per match

Othellos
0.95
Aris
1.52

allows per match

Othellos
1.60
Aris
1.10

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Aris+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Aris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
50%
Othellos or Aris
75%
Draw or Aris
75%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
9%
Aris wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
64%
Othellos 2+ goals
27%
Othellos 3+ goals
8%
Aris 1+ goals
79%
Aris 2+ goals
46%
Aris 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
33%
Aris (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Aris away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 0.95 + Aris defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aris attack 1.52 + Othellos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Othellos scores more
25%
level
25%
Aris scores more
50%

Aris at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Othellos 0–1 Aris

Aris beat Othellos 1-0 in 1. Division on October 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.