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Othellos vs Apollon Limassol — Cup 2019

Othellos
Othellos
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
9/25/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Othellos22%
×Draw18%
Apollon Limassol60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
1.61
Apollon Limassol
2.67

Apollon Limassol creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Othellos
2.00
Apollon Limassol
2.67

allows per match

Othellos
2.67
Apollon Limassol
1.22

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Apollon Limassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
40%
Othellos or Apollon Limassol
82%
Draw or Apollon Limassol
78%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
10%
Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
80%
Othellos 2+ goals
48%
Othellos 3+ goals
22%
Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
93%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
74%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
27%
Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Apollon Limassol away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 2.00 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Apollon Limassol attack 2.67 + Othellos defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Othellos scores more
22%
level
18%
Apollon Limassol scores more
60%

Apollon Limassol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Othellos 0–4 Apollon Limassol

Apollon Limassol beat Othellos 4-0 in Cup on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.