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Oţelul vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
8/21/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oţelul69%
×Draw18%
Unirea Constanța13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
2.32
Unirea Constanța
0.91

Oţelul creates 155% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.40
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Oţelul
0.73
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
87%
Oţelul or Unirea Constanța
82%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
31%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
45%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
90%
Oţelul 2+ goals
67%
Oţelul 3+ goals
40%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
60%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
23%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
84%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.40 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.32

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Oţelul defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Oţelul scores more
69%
level
18%
Unirea Constanța scores more
13%

Oţelul at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oţelul vs Unirea Constanța

Oţelul beat Unirea Constanța 3-2 in Liga II on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.