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Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
8/30/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 8Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul38%
×Draw28%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.21
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 135 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
67%
Oţelul or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
72%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
62%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
16%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
70%
Oţelul 2+ goals
34%
Oţelul 3+ goals
12%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
67%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
53%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oţelul scores more
38%
level
28%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
33%

Oţelul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 2–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Oţelul beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-0 in Liga I on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.