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Oţelul vs Rapid — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
9/17/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 9Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oţelul48%
×Draw24%
Rapid29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.71
Rapid
1.27

Oţelul creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Oţelul
2.12
Rapid
1.23

allows per match

Oţelul
1.30
Rapid
1.30

finishing

Oţelul-0.52scores less
Rapid+0.34scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
71%
Oţelul or Rapid
76%
Draw or Rapid
52%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
25%
Rapid wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
82%
Oţelul 2+ goals
51%
Oţelul 3+ goals
24%
Rapid 1+ goals
72%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
63%
Rapid (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 2.12 + Rapid defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rapid attack 1.23 + Oţelul defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oţelul scores more
48%
level
24%
Rapid scores more
29%

Oţelul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oţelul vs Rapid

Oţelul and Rapid drew 0-0 in Liga I on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.